---
name: usda-ers-food-price-outlook-ingestion
description: "How to get USDA ERS Food Price Outlook data into a pandas DataFrame and Parquet: access, the request, the format, limits, quirks and terms."
---

# Load USDA food-price forecast vintages into pandas and Parquet

Source entry: https://signal-lab-jet.vercel.app/datasets/usda-ers-food-price-outlook
Provider: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook
Checked against the provider's documentation: 2026-11-01

## Access
- No account or key. Historical CPI forecast CSV files are public downloads.

## Request
```bash
curl -O 'https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv?v=65444'
```

## Format
CSV rows with CPI item, forecast month, forecast year, target year, interval attribute and forecast percent change.

## Load into pandas and Parquet
Needs Python 3 with requests, pandas and pyarrow.
```python
"""USDA ERS historical CPI forecast vintages -> pandas -> Parquet. No key."""
import io
import requests
import pandas as pd

URL = "https://www.ers.usda.gov/media/6464/historical-consumer-price-index-cpi-forecast-series.csv?v=65444"
r = requests.get(URL, timeout=60)
r.raise_for_status()
df = pd.read_csv(io.BytesIO(r.content), encoding="utf-8-sig")
df.to_parquet("usda_food_price_outlook_cpi_history.parquet", index=False)
print(len(df), "forecast rows", df["Year of forecast"].min(), "to",
      df["Year of forecast"].max(), df["Consumer Price Index item"].nunique(), "CPI items")
```
Run by us on 2026-11-01 (python 3.13.5 | pandas 3.1.0 | pyarrow 26.0.0 | requests 2.34.2). Result: 28622 forecast rows 2002 to 2026 22 CPI items

## Limits
- Rate limit: Not stated.
- Forecasts extend up to 18 months.
- Current forecast files normally update monthly.

## Quirks
- Treat forecast month and year as the vintage and Year being forecast as the target period.
- Each point forecast is accompanied by lower and upper interval rows.
- Historical series reconstructed with the current method are not comparable with originally published archived forecasts.

## Terms and attribution
- No separate data licence is stated on the checked product pages.
- The product page states no separate licence for the downloadable files.
- Terms page: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook

## Sources
- https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook: "The ERS Food Price Outlook (FPO) provides data on food prices and forecasts annual food price changes up to 18 months in the future."
- https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook: "On a monthly basis, ERS forecasts the annual percentage change in food prices for the current year and, beginning in July each year, for the following year."
- https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook: "Users are reminded that the Historical Data series and the archived forecasts are not comparable due to changes in forecasting methods."

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Information for educational purposes only. Free tiers, limits and licenses belong to the providers and may change; check the provider's own terms before using the data.